When Should We Expect Starship’s First Orbital Test Flight?
What seems like a long time ago, SpaceX started announcing and preparing for Starship’s first orbital test flight. Many of us keeping track of Starship’s progress have been on the edge of our seats for months waiting for the launch to happen. However, as you can imagine, it takes time even for SpaceX to launch the most powerful rocket in the world for the first time. This can bring up the question of when should we genuinely be expecting the first orbital test flight?
Based on the current progress of SpaceX’s Starbase infrastructure, FAA requirements, Starship development, and more, we can expect the first orbital test flight to happen in late March to around mid-April this year. While this estimate could easily change based on a large number of factors, with the information we have now it seems likely SpaceX could attempt a launch by then. However, a lot of work still needs to be done prior.
Before you can launch a fully reusable rocket that stands at 120 meters tall, you need to make sure everything is ready. With such a powerful launch vehicle, this means preparing not only the rocket itself, but the launch site, surrounding area, and much more. Over the past few months, SpaceX per usual has been working in overdrive to prepare all the necessary components and parts for the first Starship orbital test flight.
Orbital Flight Plan
Over the past few years, SpaceX has been developing and working on Starship along with Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas. The company has managed to go from an initial SN5 150 meter hop to a successful 10-kilometer flight of Starship in a very short period of time. Not only has Starship itself made a lot of progress in this time, but Starbase as well. We have seen the company assemble and build production tents, low, mid, high, and wide bays, an orbital launch tower, mount, and much more. All of which are key pieces of infrastructure that pose just as great a challenge as the Starship launch vehicle. This brings us to today where SpaceX has been prepping for the first orbital test flight of a full Starship stack. These preparations primarily began not too long after Starship’s first successful 10-kilometer flight with SN15 in May of 2021.
This first orbital test flight will not be your standard rocket launch in a lot of aspects. For one it will utilize the orbital launch tower and launch mount. This will be the first time both structures will be put to the true test of a Starship launch. In addition to this, while Starship is fully reusable, SpaceX is not attempting to land or catch either the first or second stage. Instead, the company is focusing on trying to get Starship into orbit and test the capabilities of a Super Heavy booster paired with the second stage. Specifically, after the launch and separation of the two stages, Super Heavy is planned to fly back towards the surface, where it will attempt to light its engines and slow down similar to a real landing but over the water. This ensures the safety of the launch site which is an immensely important piece of the Starship launch puzzle. As for the Starship upper stage, it will attempt to reach orbit and then re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere for the first time. Similar to the booster it plans to re-light its engines and perform a mock landing over the water.
Expected Launch Date
Now that we know SpaceX’s general plan for this orbital flight, when can we expect to see it happen? Based on the current progress of S20, B4, and Starbase, it’s very possible we see this orbital test happen in late March to mid-April. Over the past few months, many of us have been awaiting this test to happen. This launch has been delayed quite a few times due to a number of factors. This includes mainly Starbase and Starship progress, along with FAA requirements. Prior to launching the most powerful rocket in the World from a new launch site, the FAA is required to step in. They have been doing checks related to public safety, national security, environmental impacts, and more. This process ended up taking longer than initially expected which is part of the reason for the delayed launch so far. However, while not the fastest, the FAA has begun approving future launches of Starship and Super Heavy which is a step in the right direction.
Taking a look at Starship itself, both the first and second stages are very close to being ready. By now S20 has gone through a wide range of tests including both cryo and static fires. As for B4 it has had a cryo test and is likely awaiting an upcoming static fire. These tests could be concluded very soon and help the orbital test happen in only a few months. In addition, S20 has been fully equipped with a heat shield for reentry and recently B4 had aero covers installed on various equipment positioned at the bottom of the booster. These are all final preparations hinting at an upcoming launch attempt.
We then have Starbase itself. It can’t be understated how important this launch site is not only to the first orbital test flight but future launches as well. Not only is this infrastructure important but it’s just as complicated if not more than Starship itself. Looking at the launch site alone, there are a few main pieces of equipment that have been making great progress and could be ready for a launch in a few months. This primarily includes the launch tower, orbital launch mount, and GSE tanks. By now these 8 GSE tanks which provide propellant among other things for Starship have been covered in their cryo shells and are getting ready for the first launch. The orbital launch mount has the job of not only holding the weight of Starship, but locking it in place, providing a quick disconnect arm for booster propellant filling, and a possible dilution and flame diverter system. Lastly, there is the launch tower. Recently it has been going through many tests primarily related to the chopsticks, which will catch future Starship boosters after launch. In regards to the first orbital test flight, this tower needs to keep the Starship stack stable and provide propellant to the upper stage through the quick disconnect arm. SpaceX has been performing different tests on these pieces of equipment which have gone well. It’s important to point out that there are many additional factors that play a part in the first orbital test flight, however, these are some of the main factors impacting the date at which it happens.
Conclusion
It is no easy task trying to estimate Starship’s first orbital test date. This launch is the first of its kind and there are countless factors that have an impact. Here I highlighted some of the progress on Starship, Starbase, and the FAA. All of which need to be perfect for the first orbital flight to happen. While it’s by no means guaranteed, it’s very possible we see this orbital test happen in late March to mid-April of 2022. This launch is likely to change how we view space and access it in the future. Even if it’s not a success it will provide invaluable information and be quite the spectacle. We will have to wait and see how progress continues and when the launch happens.
