SpaceX Is Preparing To Install Starship’s Flight Termination System
With the third Starship flight attempt just weeks away, almost every day a new development is taking place as preparations for the launch ramp up. One of the final steps that in the past has always been a good indicator of launch readiness has to do the flight terminations system. This system uses explosives planted on the vehicle to ensure SpaceX can detonate Starship safely if necessary during the test.
This being said, it’s only ever seen and installed when the company is just about ready to lift off. In addition, new comments from Musk along with progress on the launch site suggest the third flight is very soon. Here I will go more in-depth into the flight termination system and explosives, final launch prep, what to expect in the coming weeks, and more.
Starship Explosives Spotted
Earlier today Starship Gazer managed to snap images of a delivery arriving at the site with the classic 1.1D explosives marking on the side. That specific type of explosive is described as a secondary detonating explosive substance. In the past prior to the other launches, we have seen the same delivery and signs. While it hasn’t been installed yet, this is a good first step.
To put it in perspective, the explosives are only installed just days before a flight attempt based on past results. For example, on April 14th, 2023, the FTS was installed and less than a week later on the 20th we watched the first full Starship flight attempt. Also, on the more recent flight, the FTS was installed on November 11th with a launch attempt on the 18th. In other words, once we see SpaceX installing this system, we know that a launch is likely a week or less away. The reason for this is it presents a safety hazard to have explosives installed on a vehicle that is actively being worked on. It’s one of the final steps before the site is eventually cleared and the rocket attempts to lift off.
All this being said, today we only saw the delivery and not an installation. While still a good sign, in the past this has happened months before a launch. On the last flight, the FTS was delivered in late August, and the launch was in November. That ended up being around 2 and a half months between delivery and launch. While not necessarily ideal, other information suggests that SpaceX is much closer than that to Starship’s third flight.
Yesterday on the 19th, when talking on Twitter, Musk commented on the next flight and how he expected it to go. In a quote, he said, “I don’t want to jinx it, but I think the probability of reaching orbit is good, probably 70-80 percent with this third flight. The third flight is certainly a much better rocket than flights 1 and 2 but you can’t have too much luck in a rocket launch. He then said, “We’re getting ready to do flight 3 in probably the second week of March. We are trying to do it sooner than March 8th, but my guess is it will happen sometime in the first half of next month. And then Flight 4 is ready shortly thereafter” he said.
These comments are promising and align with some of the progress we are seeing at the launch site. In the past few weeks, multiple SpaceX officials suggested that they would be ready for a launch toward the end of this month. They also were confident about FAA approval which has been an issue in the past but seems to be going much smoother this time around. Based on physical launch hardware and final testing, a launch in early March looks possible with plenty of options later in the month. If SpaceX and the FAA aren’t quite ready by March 8th, there shouldn’t be anything stopping them from a flight by the end of the month. He also mentioned Flight 4 being ready to go soon after. Based on past comments you have to take what Musk says with a grain of salt but assuming the third flight happens next month, we are seeing a consistent improvement of Starship’s launch timeline. The first to second flight took around 8 months and the second to third could be just 4-5 months. With the amount of future flight hardware already practically complete, the goal for the company is to keep shortening the time between launches.
More Starship Launch Pads
In order for Starship to eventually launch crew and much more frequently, SpaceX needs additional capable launch and landing sites around the country. Recently we received more news regarding Space Launch Complex 37 which is currently operated by United Launch Alliance for Delta IV Heavy missions. However, the last launch of that rocket is set to happen later this year and with it, a vacancy at the site. The Department of the Air Force is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) regarding Starship launches from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. In this case, the study would examine the environmental impacts of converting SLC 37 at Cape Canaveral into a Starship launch complex.
A new website describing the plan goes more in-depth into upcoming meetings and the general process. In a quote, they say, “The U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to assess the potential environmental impacts of this project. The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to assess anticipated environmental impacts of their proposed actions, disclose their findings to the public, and solicit public input on their proposals. The EIS will: Describe the affected environment, Evaluate potential impacts from the proposed action and alternatives, and Propose mitigation to avoid, minimize, or reduce potential for adverse impacts.”
They include a timeline going from early 2024 to the middle of 2025. That time is mainly meant to include positing draft assessments and eventually issuing a record of decision in Fall 2025. In another quote they say, “Public involvement is a crucial component of preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). It provides the public with an opportunity to review and comment on the proposed action and potential environmental impacts. Public scoping is conducted in the early stages of EIS development to solicit comments from the public and agencies about potential issues that should be analyzed in the EIS. This could include resource areas that may be affected by the proposed action, impacts from past or ongoing projects, sufficiency of alternatives being considered, and study areas being evaluated” they said.
In relation to this, there are three meetings scheduled in early March. There is not much land to go around at the Cape and this site could be a big asset to SpaceX. “We’ve reallocated all of our launch pads,” said the Space Force deputy director of operations for Space Systems Command, during a presentation at the annual meeting of the Global Spaceport Alliance Jan. 29. “We don’t have much more land to give.” All of which making this specific opportunity even more valuable.
To add to everything happening, as Starship gets closer to reaching orbit at the same time as Flacon 9 improves its launch cadence and reliability, SpaceX is gaining even more interest from the government. Earlier today the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX entered into a $1.8 billion classified contract with the U.S. government in 2021. This comes in addition to expanding a secretive company satellite program called Starshield for national security customers. For the most part, all of these contracts and deals have been kept under the radar. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said, “When I’m never sure what I can say in a public forum, I tend to zip it. But I can say that there is very good collaboration between the intelligence community and SpaceX”.
At the end of the day, all of these future contracts and launch site development rely heavily on the upcoming Starship launch and eventually reaching orbit. Earlier this month the FAA shared specific information on the approval process for Starship’s next flight attempt. In a response, they said, “The return to flight of the SpaceX Starship Super Heavy vehicle requires the OFT-2 launch mishap investigation to be closed and the license modification for the OFT-3 launch to be approved.” They then said, “The SpaceX-led mishap investigation remains open and SpaceX has not yet submitted all needed information for the license modification.”
SpaceX and the FAA have been working together throughout this process and by now have quite a bit of experience together. Rather than SpaceX just submitting a document and waiting for approval, the process is more back and forth which would suggest that by now SpaceX has already shared the majority of necessary info to the agency. In other words, the remaining information that the FAA mentioned in the statement could be relatively small and one of the final steps. It would also make sense that this process is faster than the previous attempts for a few reasons. For one, less needed to be changed from IFT-2 to IFT-3 rather than IFT-1 to 2. The last time there was a long list of issues related to pad damage, the Starship vehicle itself, etc. This time around the pad held up as intended and the vehicle made it past stage separation. In the grand scheme of things, the modifications will be minimal in comparison to the past launches. All of which supports FAA approval in the next few weeks and then the third flight attempt.
Conclusion
SpaceX is getting very close to the third flight of Starship. Betewen explosives for the Flight Termination System being delivered, physical progress, FAA statements, etc, the company is just about ready. We will have to wait and see how it progresses and the impact it has on the space industry.
