Despite a launch license date estimate from the FAA of late November, SpaceX is trying to make a push toward Flight 5 of Starship. In a new update from by the company earlier today they provided a specific date of October 13th for the launch, only a week away, pending regulatory approval.
Obviously, those final few words are what really matters as SpaceX won’t be launching anything until they are approved by the Federal Aviation Administration. In addition to this specific date, they gave a detailed explanation of how the booster catch will or will not happen depending on certain mission criteria.
Flight 5 Overview
In a new tweet, the company said, “Starship’s fifth flight test is preparing to launch as soon as October 13, pending regulatory approval.” This is the first time leading up to Flight 5 that we have received a specific date which normally only happens soon before an actual flight attempt. At the same time, it’s been made clear by the FAA multiple times now that they are not expected to approve the flight until around late November.
As recently as a few days ago the FAA issued a statement that said, “SpaceX must meet all safety, environmental, and other licensing requirements prior to FAA launch authorization. A final license determination for Starship Flight 5 is not expected before late November 2024.” In other words, they doubled down on what they had originally said last month.
With all this in mind, it suggests that SpaceX is likely just putting some pressure on the agency and making it very clear that they are absolutely ready to launch and the one thing holding them back is approval. On the flip side, if this date was actually based on some information the company has that we don’t, it means we could see the rocket liftoff in less than a week from now.
Based on past launches one of the final steps which is a good sign is the installation of the Flight Termination System explosives. This usually only happens a few days before the actual launch. Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Launch date aside, they also provided a full flight profile and some more specific information on how they will determine whether or not the booster will attempt a catch. They first are quoted saying, “The fifth flight test of Starship will aim to take another step towards full and rapid reusability. The primary objectives will be attempting the first ever return to launch site and catch of the Super Heavy booster and another Starship reentry and landing burn, aiming for an on-target splashdown of Starship in the Indian Ocean.”
“Extensive upgrades ahead of this flight test have been made to hardware and software across Super Heavy, Starship, and the launch and catch tower infrastructure at Starbase. SpaceX engineers have spent years preparing and months testing for the booster catch attempt, with technicians pouring tens of thousands of hours into building the infrastructure to maximize our chances for success. We accept no compromises when it comes to ensuring the safety of the public and our team, and the return will only be attempted if conditions are right” they said.
Importantly, they then say, “Thousands of distinct vehicle and pad criteria must be met prior to a return and catch attempt of the Super Heavy booster, which will require healthy systems on the booster and tower and a manual command from the mission’s Flight Director. If this command is not sent prior to the completion of the boostback burn, or if automated health checks show unacceptable conditions with Super Heavy or the tower, the booster will default to a trajectory that takes it to a landing burn and soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.”
This statement confirms that Starship Flight 5’s default mission, without any human intervention sends the booster toward the Gulf of Mexico to splashdown in the water, similar to the last flight. However, the mission Flight Director will determine likely around stage separation if the vehicle should instead make its way back to the launch site for a catch attempt, depending on a long list of criteria. This means as an audience we won’t know what to expect until right around the boostback burn.
In the update they then clarified, “The returning booster will slow down from supersonic speeds, resulting in audible sonic booms in the area around the landing zone. Generally, the only impact to those in the surrounding area of a sonic boom is the brief thunder-like noise with variables like weather and distance from the return site determining the magnitude experienced by observers.”
As for the upper stage, “Starship will fly a similar trajectory as the previous flight test with splashdown targeted in the Indian Ocean. This flight path does not require a deorbit burn for reentry, maximizing public safety while still providing the opportunity to meet our primary objective of a controlled reentry and soft water landing of Starship” they said.
On Flight 4, we saw the tenacity of the upper stage which managed to complete its landing burn despite its front flap nearly being completely destroyed during reentry. This was one of the areas in particular that SpaceX focused on improving.
They are quoted saying, “One of the key upgrades on Starship ahead of flight was a complete rework of its heatshield, with SpaceX technicians spending more than 12,000 hours replacing the entire thermal protection system with newer-generation tiles, a backup ablative layer, and additional protections between the flap structures. This massive effort, along with updates to the ship’s operations and software for reentry and landing burn, will look to improve upon the previous flight and bring Starship to a soft splashdown at the target area in the Indian Ocean” they said.
The detailed flight profile also gives us a good idea of what to expect on flight day. When the day does arrive, the launch will be targeted at 7:00 a.m. CT, with the SpaceX Flight Director conducting a poll and verifying GO for propellant load 1:15:00 prior to launch. Over the next hour the booster and ship will be filled with propellant until around T-2:50 when the booster is full.
With 10 seconds left, the deluge system will activate and as the clock hits zero the vehicle will liftoff. Up until the boostback burn this flight will look very similar to the last. At T+ 2:33 the booster main engines will shut off. Seconds later we’ll see hotstaging where the upper stage lights its engines while still attached to the booster. They will then separate and the hot stage ring will be jettisoned from the booster.
This is where the flight profile becomes unique. By T + 6:08 the booster will be transonic. At around T + 6:50 seconds there are two options. First, “Super Heavy splashdown if no catch attempt” and then only a few seconds later “Super Heavy landing burn shutdown and catch attempt”. This highlights that the difference at least time-wise between the two options is only 6 seconds, with the catch leading to the booster staying in the air longer.
With the catch, we’ll see the booster coming in extremely quickly seemingly lighting its engine’s last seconds to burn speed and attempt to position itself between the catch arms. They would then close around the booster before Super Heavy shuts off its engines and if everything went well, sat in tact hanging in the air. This obviously is extremely ambitious and if SpaceX does end up attempting it on the next flight, it will definitely be entertaining no matter the result.
About a minute later the upper stage will cut its engines off and being its coast phase. Over the next 40 minutes it will be traveling around Earth until reentry and finally a landing burn and splashdown, hopefully fully intact.
When talking about the last launch they mentioned, “Flight 4 was a tremendous success. A fully successful ascent was followed by the first-ever booster soft landing in the Gulf of Mexico and Starship making it through a brilliant reentry, before its own landing burn and splashdown in the Indian Ocean.”
They finished by saying, “With each flight building on the learnings from the last, testing improvements in hardware and operations across every facet of Starship, we’re on the verge of demonstrating techniques fundamental to Starship’s fully and rapidly reusable design. By continuing to push our hardware in a flight environment, and doing so as safely and frequently as possible, we’ll rapidly bring Starship online and revolutionize humanity’s ability to access space.”
Conclusion
SpaceX just released a new update which included a possible launch date as soon as October 13th as well as specific flight 5 details. We now know that the catch attempt will be determined by a manual input sometime before the boostback burn. If it goes through, the first catch attempt will take place with the Super Heavy booster.