Customers Are Switching From The Ariane 6 To SpaceX

Only days ago the Ariane 6 rocket lifted off for the first time ever. With this vehicle now ready, Europe again has access to its own heavy-lift launch vehicle. However, in one very recent instance, a company set to launch its payload on the Ariane 6’s 3rd flight, made the decision to instead launch with SpaceX and the Falcon 9.

While this is just a single example, a few officials at various European agencies have expressed their disappointment and confusion with the decision. Here I will go more in-depth into the change in launch providers, the competition between the two, the future flight manifest, and more.

Losing Customers

On July 9th at 3:01 pm EST, Ariane 6 ignited its engines and lifted off for the first time ever. The mission would go on to be successful with the rocket completing its various mission milestones along with proper payload deployment. There was one issue toward the end of the mission where the upper stage failed to reignite for the third engine burn. This final burn was meant to steer the stage back toward Earth’s atmosphere for a destructive reentry. While not ideal, the vast majority of the mission went as planned, and considering this was the first flight, the issue should be fixed for future launches.

With that being said, even before the launch took place one key customer decided to change their mind. Specifically, late last month we learned that the European intergovernmental organization responsible for launching and operating the continent’s weather satellites canceled an upcoming launch with the Ariane 6. The cancel however was done in order to switch the launch provider to SpaceX and the Falcon 9 in particular.

This move was not liked by many related to the Ariane 6 and its manifest. For example, the chairman and chief executive of the French space agency was quoted saying, “This is quite a brutal change as the flight was supposed to take place very soon. Clearly, today is a very disappointing day for European space efforts. The technical conditions were met for a launch on Ariane 6 and the launcher was indeed available. I am impatiently waiting to understand what reasons could have led them to such a decision, at a time where all major European space countries as well as the European Commission are calling for launching European satellites on European launchers! Not mentioning the fact that we are 10 days away from the maiden flight of Ariane 6” he said. These statements make it clear how surprised and upset some were with the decision.

In terms of what caused the change, it’s not exactly clear why they switched to SpaceX. In reality, they simply might have wanted to launch with a rocket that they know will be ready and that has an impressive success rate. The recent upper-stage failure isn’t great but it doesn’t take away from what that rocket has accomplished over the last 7-plus years. It also could be related to insurance and the difference in risk between a brand-new rocket and one with hundreds of missions. It also brings up the question of price and what’s worth more to the company launching their satellite. This competition has been going on for a while now and especially over the last year or so.

Related to this, after the recent maiden flight, the CEO of the French Space Agency said, “With this first successful launch by Ariane 6, Europe has finally recovered its capacity to access space. Europe can be proud of its space programme, Europe can be proud of its knowledge and expertise. Together, let’s prepare the future of launchers and space” he said.

When he mentions recovering the capacity to access space, for a while now Europe has been without a significant launch vehicle. The original plan was to have Ariane 6 ready in time for Ariane 5’s retirement which would support a smooth transition. Unfortunately, quite a few delays and complications continued to push this maiden flight back to the point where Ariane 5 was retired and there were simply no European replacements ready. In that time we saw more contracts given to the US and companies like SpaceX to help launch satellites that needed a ride.

Now that Ariane 6 is ready, the plan is to launch more missions going forward. The vehicle is expected to fly one more mission this year, then ramp up to six flights in 2025, eight in 2026 and 10 in 2027.  ESA officials said that the new rocket will likely fly a maximum of 10 times or so per year for the foreseeable future. This somewhat reasonable launch manifest is part of the reason the vehicle is expendable. Officials have also made comments on the fact that it’s simply not launching enough to warrant cost savings from reusability. ESA’s director of space transportation was quoted saying, “Our launch needs are so low that it wouldn’t make sense economically. So, we don’t really need it at this point” he said, in reference to reusing the vehicle.

On the topic of competition, when asked about future vehicles such as Starship and if they were a concern, the ESA director of space transportation said, “Honestly, I don’t think Starship will be a game-changer or a real competitor. This huge launcher is designed to fly people to the moon and Mars. Ariane 6 is perfect for the job if you need to launch a four- or five-ton satellite. Starship will not eradicate Ariane 6 at all. Far in the future, like in 2040, the situation will be different. We’ll probably have a space transportation logistics system with recurrent and reusable launchers flying to a hub. In that hub, there will be platforms, satellites, and spacecraft going to other destinations, refueling and servicing capabilities, in-orbit manufacturing, etc. Starship will probably have a big role in carrying heavy cargo to this space logistics hub, like a container ship getting to a terminal. Europe is already working on this vision with the development of space cargo, in-orbit refueling, in-space docking systems, and traffic to the Moon using Ariane 6” he said. In other words, they strongly believe that Ariane 6 will operate just fine as is and vehicles like Starship won’t be a concern over the next decade plus.

Ariane 6’s Future

On the most recent flight, the payloads mainly consisted of a handful of experiments, CubeSats, and capsules. More specifically, one hour after liftoff, the first set of satellites on board Ariane 6 were released from the upper stage and placed into an orbit 600 km above Earth. Satellites and experiments from various space agencies, companies, research institutes, universities and young professionals were included on this inaugural flight

Soon after the European Space Agency tweeted saying, “Europe’s new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, made its inaugural flight from the Europe Space Port in French Guiana at 20:00 BST/21:00 CEST on 9 July. This launch brings Europe into a new era of autonomous space transportation and powers Europe into space to realize its ambitions on the world stage.”

In addition to the rocket, the liftoff demonstrated the functioning of the launch pad and operations on the ground at Europe’s Spaceport. The new custom-built dedicated launch zone was built by France’s space agency CNES and is intended to allow for a faster turnover of Ariane launches. Despite its expendable design, it’s estimated to still have a somewhat competitive price relative to other rockets within the industry. The rocket already has 30 flights on its manifest, 18 of which have to do with launching Amazon’s project Kuiper satellites.

The rocket comes in two versions and has a reignitiable upper stage to launch multiple satellites on a single flight, as well as missions that need a ‘heavy lift’ to the Moon and beyond. Payload carriers allow small satellites to piggyback on a launch which is meant to provide cost-effective launch opportunities for small companies wanting to access the growing space industry. Later in this first flight after initial payload deployment, Ariane 6’s upper stage restarted its upper stage engine using the novel auxiliary propulsion unit. This restart capability will allow Ariane 6 to drop off multiple passengers into different orbits on future flights and deorbit itself through Earth’s atmosphere at the end of its mission, to ensure it does not become space debris.

Looking at the rocket, in the official rocket media kit, they are quoted saying, “Europe’s next launch vehicle is the powerful Ariane 6. It will ensure Europe has secure and autonomous access to space, so it doesn’t rely on the capabilities and priorities of other nations. With daily life increasingly reliant on space to keep people and things connected for communication, banking, transport, medicine and weather forecasting, the ability to launch independently is vital” they said. These comments among others make it clear that they feel strongly about launching their own satellites. This is part of the reason the time between Ariane 5’s retirement and 6’s first flight was so inconvenient for Europe.

They go on to say, “Ariane 6 will launch a wide range of space missions and comes in two versions, depending on the power needed for each flight. Ariane 62 has two solid rocket boosters, while Ariane 64 will have four. For the development of Ariane 6, ESA is working with an industrial network in 13 European countries, led by prime contractor and design authority ArianeGroup. Arianespace is the launch service provider that markets and operates the Ariane 6 launcher for institutional and commercial customers to launch a variety of missions into orbit.”

Taking a closer look at the vehicle itself, the boosters on the side of the main stage provide the main thrust at liftoff. Two or four boosters can be installed depending on the performance needed for each flight. The main stage is powered by the liquid-fuelled Vulcain 2.1 – an upgraded version of Ariane 5’s main Vulcain engine. The upper stage is powered by a reignitable engine that runs on liquid oxygen and hydrogen, the same propellants used by the main stage. The fairing at the top of Ariane 6 is like a nosecone that splits vertically to reveal the hardware underneath. The fairing comes in 14 m and 20 m lengths, both 5.4 m in diameter and made of a carbon fiber reinforced polymer. The fairing protects the satellites from the thermal, acoustic and aerodynamic stresses as Ariane 6 rockets to space. In the future, this general rocket design is hoping to be the main launcher for Europe and stay competitive with a handful of other rockets. Something to look forward to in the coming years.

Conclusion

Just a few days ago the Ariane 6 rocket lifted off for the first time and officially brought a larger launch capability back to Europe. Despite this, some companies have already switched to the rocket’s competition including the Falcon 9. In the future, we should see an increase in Ariane 6 launches as they have quite a full manifest as of right now. We will have to wait and see how it progresses and the impact it has on the space industry.

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