Starship Is Closing In On A Second Launch Attempt
Since Starship’s first launch nearly two months ago, teams at SpaceX have been all hands on deck as they prepare for the next attempt. As soon as the company was able to return to the launchpad, work began on clearing debris and assessing the damage. By now Stage 0, all the key infrastructure at the launch pad, is looking reasonably close to being complete.
However, Stage 0 is not the only factor determining Starship’s next launch. The rocket itself is making fast progress and new estimates from Musk suggest that in only two months from now we could see another full integrated test flight. While ambitious, progress is being made at a very impressive pace and the company is determined to get this vehicle to orbit.
This comment also gives more insights on the water cooled steel plate and some of the testing that was recently completed. Obviously, SpaceX is confident in this design as a full system is nearing completion under the orbital launch mount. Here I will go more in-depth into the new launch estimates, some of the work that still needs to be completed, what to expect in the next few weeks, and more.
New Launch Estimate
It’s possible that before the end of summer, we see Starship lift off again. The first test flight on April 20th aimed to send Starship’s upper-stage spacecraft most of the way around Earth. While the vehicle managed to complete a few significant milestones, it also experienced several serious problems, and SpaceX sent a self-destruct command a few minutes after liftoff.
Since then both SpaceX and Elon Musk have provided various updates and timelines of when the next launch could be. In this specific case, the estimate was a bit harder to make considering the launch vehicle was not the only limiting factor but the pad structures also needed work. All this being said, yesterday when asked when the next Starship launch would be, Musk replied saying, “6 to 8 weeks”. This would put the launch as early as late July to the middle of August.
It’s important to point out that Musk is often very ambitious with these launch timelines and more often than not things take a bit longer. Whether or not this is the case, the 6 to 8 week estimate is very promising. It’s one thing to make an educated guess years or many months in advance which could be off by a long period of time. On the other hand, if he believes that they could launch in just a month and a half, even if he is off it still suggests that we are only a few months away.
However, soon after the first launch when all the damage was revealed, Musk was quoted saying, “I’m glad to report that the pad damage is actually quite small” and should “be repaired quickly.” From a “pad standpoint, we are probably ready to launch in 6 to 8 weeks” he said. This estimate was specifically talking about the pad and not the rocket or other external factors and was reasonably on target. It’s been about 6-7 weeks since then and the pad still needs some repairs and upgrades.
As far as other factors influencing the next launch, the company could also face some regulatory hurdles. A coalition of environmental groups is currently suing the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the body that issued Starship’s launch license, saying the agency didn’t properly assess the potential damage that the giant vehicle could inflict on the South Texas ecosystem and the human communities around Starbase.
Lastly, there are the pre launch tests themselves which really are the most important factor. Right now it’s likely that in a few weeks, we can expect to see Booster 9 conduct a full static fire. This will not only test the booster itself but also the new water cooled steel plate. The results of this test will either have very positive or negative effects on the launch date. If the steel plate doesn’t hold up as intended then it could cause significant delays, it could also work perfectly and keep the launch on track. This test could even help in the lawsuit against the FAA. Here, SpaceX needs to inform them of changes made to mitigate the issues that occurred on the first flight. A successful Booster 9 static fire and suppression from the steel plate would be impactful evidence.
What’s Different?
The first Starship launch was exciting, but didn’t quite go to plan. Some of the main issues included damage to Stage 0, multiple engines going out, loss of communication, and the delay with the Autonomous Flight Termination System or AFTS. All of which combined and stopped the rocket from completing stage separation.
Not long ago Elon was quoted saying, “Got pretty close to stage separation … if we had maintained thrust vector control and throttled up, which we should have … then we would have made it to staging. Our goal for the next flight is to make it to staging and hopefully succeed. My expectation for the next flight would be to reach orbit.” The next flight profile will be a “repeat. At the end of the day, “The goal of these missions is just information. Like, we don’t have any payload or anything — it’s just to learn as much as possible” he said.
Despite the fact that there could only be a few months between the first and second flight, there are a lot of changes. Starship’s first test flight was with Booster 7 and Ship 24. Even before the first launch, in an interview, Elon was quoted saying, “We are actually dying to get this rocket off no matter what happens to it because there are so many improvements between booster 7 and booster 9, literally hundreds. Some major ones, we moved from hydraulic thrust vector control to electric, and the entire heat shield structure on the base on Booster 9 is completely redesigned from Booster 7. Booster 7 has kinda a retrofitted heat shield system between the engines, and this is very important because if you think about 33 engines, if anyone of them goes wrong, it’s like having a box of grenades, really big grenades, and if one goes off you don’t want the others to go off also. We just want to take off and move on to Booster 9” he said.
Elon talked more about the improvements when he said, “The big things that are important for the next flight are, ensuring that we don’t lose thrust vector control, so isolating that thrust vector control. With Booster 9 that is a lot easier because we use electric motors to steer the engines as opposed to hydraulic actuators where you have a common manifold between the hydraulic actuators. In this case, if you lose hydraulic pressure you can lose multiple engines. The electrically actuated engines will be much more isolated and not have like a single event failure as long as they don’t lose power or coms” he said.
He believes that there is an 80% probability of reaching orbit with Starship this year, and close to 100% chance of reaching orbit within 12 months.” He finished by making a few comments on what to expect for the next flight. First, he pointed out, “For the next flight, “we’re going to start the engines faster and get off the pad faster.” From engine start to moving Starship “was around 5 seconds, which is a really long time to be blasting the pad.” Going to try to cut that time in half. It was actually good to get this vehicle off the ground because we’ve made so many improvements” in Super Heavy Booster 9 “and beyond. Really just needed to fly this vehicle and then move on to the much improved booster.
Out of everything Booster 9 seems to have the most changes. The only competition would be the pad itself and the new water cooled steel plate. The only protection during flight was a special heat resistant concrete that the company believed would hold up at least for one launch. They based that idea on a partial thrust static fire that didn’t damage the pad that much. However, now the company is going from a special concrete to an industrial steel plate with significant plumbing that stretches underneath the entirety of the launch mount.
Recently SpaceX shared a video of them testing this system up close to a Raptor engine. In the test they were only using a single Raptor and not 33, but you have to consider the extra surface area and size of a full water cooled steel plate and also the distance. In the test footage based on the Raptor size, the steel test plate looks to be around 7 meters away from the engine. This is a much closer distance than the space between the top of the Orbital Launch Mount and the ground where a full plate will be installed. In reality, the distance will be around twice this at close to 15 meters.
With all things considered, this test is quite impressive and gave SpaceX the confidence to continue as more progress can be seen at Boca Chica. If tests like these were not performing as expected or better, the company would be thinking of alternative solutions. Also, in a way, this water-cooled steel plate will need to perform and survive much more than just a single launch. In order for Starship to be rapidly reusable as intended, the pad and all the supporting structures need to be as well. There is no point of a water cooled steel plate if after one or two launches SpaceX needs a few weeks to repair and fix it.
Conclusion
SpaceX is making a lot of progress and Elon is confident that launch is possible in less than 2 months from now. This is an ambitious goal but possible based on the work being completed on both Stage 0 and the new Starship prototype. We will have to wait and see how it progresses and the impact it has on the space industry.
