A Closer Look At SpaceX’s Lunar Starship Timeline Concerns
Yesterday, the GAO, also known as the U.S. Government Accountability Office, released a 47-page report highlighting some of the major concerns regarding the plan to return humans to the Moon. One area in particular that the report focused on was the Starship Human Landing System and large amount of work that SpaceX still needs to complete.
They are concerned that Starship development in conjunction with a handful of other projects will delay the 2025 landing date by at least a few years. On the other hand, the report also gave new insight into the progress of a lunar Starship and the large amount of work that has already been completed. Here I will go more in-depth into what this report says, the state of a lunar Starship, some of the biggest upcoming challenges, and more.
Starship Concerns
At the very start of the report, the GAO goes over some of the initial concerns and problems with this mission’s plan and timeline in relation to Starship. Here they are quoted saying, “The Human Landing System program is aiming to complete its development—from project start to launch—in 79 months, which is 13 months shorter than the average for NASA major projects.” They go on to highlight that this shorter timeframe expected of the company is not realistic and especially not when you consider that it’s a human spaceflight mission. They then said, “GAO found that if development took as long as the average for NASA major projects, the Artemis III mission would likely occur in early 2027.” In other words, the only reason a 2025 landing was even in the picture was because of a significantly accelerated timeline.
They then go on to site various delays that the Starship program has endured including the Human Landing System program delaying eight of 13 key events by at least 6 months. The GAO points out that some of these setbacks were caused by the large delay between the first and second orbital flight test.
Finally, the last and arguably most important concern brought up by the agency was all the development and testing necessary for propellant transfer. Here they said, “A critical aspect of SpaceX’s plan for landing astronauts on the moon for Artemis III is launching multiple tankers that will transfer propellant to a depot in space before transferring that propellant to the human landing system. NASA documentation states that SpaceX has made limited progress maturing the technologies needed to support this aspect of its plan.” That last comment is a bit concerning and helps put in perspective the amount of work SpaceX still needs to complete.
Looking deeper into the report, they go much more in-depth into what SpaceX still needs to complete before they can land on the Moon. One example includes Raptor engine development. In the future, the Raptor engine will be used both on the booster and even the upper-stage lunar lander as well. While SpaceX is very confident in this engine and the recent orbital flight test showcased its progress, the GAO has a few concerns. They are quoted saying, “However, the HLS Program Office identified engine development as a top risk to the program. SpaceX representatives said that their design for the Raptor engine follows an iterative approach, and as of September 2023, SpaceX had assembled and tested hundreds of engines. In a February 2023 interview, HLS officials said that if the Raptor engine operates below performance levels needed to meet mission requirements, thereby delaying engine certification, then it is possible that the new main engine for the human landing system will not be ready to support the planned mission in December 2025” they said. With this being said, of the possible delays listed the Raptor engines and its development will likely not be a limiting factor.
Finally, they went more in-depth into the propellant transfer and what the future looks like. There are multiple key systems related to the propellant transfer capability that SpaceX plans to develop for the human landing system. Those systems include docking sensors and mechanisms (to identify, locate, and then physically align the HLS Starship and the tanker Starship for fluid transfer); propellant measurement (to gauge the amount of propellant in the tanks and how much was transferred); and storage capability to mitigate fuel loss in space.
In another quote they comment, “SpaceX plans to conduct the in-space Propellant Storage and Transfer test to further mature the technology, but the timing of this test is dependent on successful completion of preceding flights. SpaceX representatives said that the fundamental propellant transfer technology is not new or unique but requires engineering time and development effort to fully design and test for eventual use in the Artemis III mission. If the docking hardware does not perform as expected during spaceflight testing, significant vehicle modifications may be required, which could delay the mission. HLS officials said that SpaceX must demonstrate these technologies prior to completing the critical design review to promote confidence in the mission concept of operations” they said.
This area no doubt will be one of the biggest developmental challenges and a very time-consuming process. It will primarily depend on how fast SpaceX can get Starships consistently to orbit and begin testing this exact process. Something we can expect to hear much more about in the near future.
Mission Progress
While there were a lot of concerns about Starship and whether or not it will be ready in time, there was also some positive information. Here the report is quoted saying, “SpaceX and NASA continue to make progress on the human landing system, including completing some work early. SpaceX representatives
reported completing 20 interim HLS milestones since June 2022 to mature the human landing system design and reduce development risk. NASA officials stated SpaceX submitted deliverables early for approximately 74 percent of the Artemis III contract payment milestones that have been completed.”
This is all good news and highlights that while there is a lot of work left, SpaceX has been busy and has absolutely made progress. As far as what we can expect in the coming months, the HLS program and SpaceX delayed eight out of 13 key events by between 6 and 13 months. We now know that of those delayed events, at least two will occur in 2025—the year the Artemis III mission is scheduled to take place. In addition, partially as a result of these delays, SpaceX plans to complete eight key events between November 2023 and the planned date of the Artemis III mission.
However, they point out that due to delays to several key events, NASA will have a relatively short amount of time to ensure that the HLS complies with human spaceflight safety requirements before the mission start. For example, NASA delayed the HLS Design Certification Review, which is now closer to the Artemis III mission than originally planned. At this review, NASA will ensure that the design complies with requirements and human spaceflight certification. According to NASA documentation, this milestone should be completed 9 months prior to launch.
This new report joins a host of concerns that were expressed by NASA officials not long ago. Earlier this year, speaking at a joint meeting of the National Academies’ Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board and Space Studies Board, Jim Free, NASA associate administrator for exploration systems development, said Artemis 3 was in danger of being delayed from December 2025 to some time in 2026. He went on to clarify that SpaceX and the Starship HLS system in particular was what he was worried about. Specifically, he pointed out the number of Starship launches that SpaceX has to carry out to be ready for Artemis 3. Each Starship lander mission requires launching the Starship lander itself as well as several “tanker” Starships to fuel the lander in Earth orbit before it goes to the moon.
“That’s a lot of launches to get those missions done,” Free said. “They have a significant number of launches to go, and that, of course, gives me concern about the December of 2025 date” for Artemis 3. He continued by saying, “With the difficulties that SpaceX has had, I think that’s really concerning. You can think about that slipping probably into ’26” he said.
Even more recently, speaking at an Aug. 8 briefing at the Kennedy Space Center, he talked about the possibility of changing the Artemis III mission plan depending on what’s ready. “We may end up flying a different mission if that’s the case,” he said. “If we have these big slips out, we’ve looked at if can we do other missions.” Artemis 3 could also change based on the outcome of Artemis 2, he added. “One thing we learned from ISS is to make sure we’re flexible so we keep human spaceflight viable,” he said, such as changing the assembly sequence of the station based on when hardware was available. “I think it’s incumbent upon us to do that,” he said. “We’re trying to look at all of the missions that we could fly to keep learning.”
He finished by saying, “When we come up with a date, December of 2025 or whatever that date might be, we want to have confidence for our teams that we all have a realistic path to get there.” These comments make it clear that some NASA officials are not too confident in SpaceX. At the same time, however, other critical mission aspects like SLS, Orion, Ground Systems, etc., each need a lot of work and a successful Artemis II launch if they want to stay on track. Even this new report goes over a long list of concerns regarding Axiom’s spacesuit which needs to be ready for Artemis III. Something to consider when determining how long it will be delayed and who is to blame.
Conclusion
The GAO just released a long report going over possible delays for the Artemis III mission and specifically landing humans on the Moon. One area of focus is the Starship human landing system which still has a decent bit of work left. We will have to wait and see how it progresses and the impact it has on the space industry.
