NASA is currently in the process of upgrading some of its critical infrastructure necessary for the future Artemis missions and humans return to the Moon. This mainly includes ground systems such as the mobile launcher or even vehicle assembly building.
However, a recent report from the GAO found that Artemis 2, scheduled less than a year from now in September 2025, is at risk of being delayed.
New Delays
A few weeks ago on October 17th, the GAO, or Government Accountability Office, released a new report specifically focusing on the Exploration Ground Systems program (EGS). For context, this program develops and operates the systems and facilities necessary to integrate and launch rockets and spacecraft and then recover crew for the Artemis missions. Some examples include the mobile launcher, launch pad 39B, the VAB, etc.
It’s also a very expensive program, with the agency citing that it expects to spend $3 billion specifically for fiscal years 2024 through 2028 just for EGS.
In terms of what they found, there are a few valid concerns. For example, one section is titled, Modifications for Near-Term Missions Are Close to Completion, but Schedule Risks Remain. They then are quoted saying, “EGS is making progress upgrading and modifying facilities and software to support Artemis II and III, the next missions in NASA’s campaign to return humans to the lunar surface. However, the program has little schedule margin in the current Artemis II and III mission dates to address potential technical issues, or possible delays on the SLS and Orion programs. Should any of these occur, then delays to the planned Artemis launches are possible” they said.
One project in specific that the agency has been working on has been the Mobile launcher which was damaged after Artemis 1. In terms of general progress on this system, they were quoted saying, “EGS has been refurbishing the ML1 after it experienced more damage than anticipated during the Artemis I launch. According to officials, EGS has been working to strengthen the elevator shaft and repair damage in the tower, while also providing protective barriers to damaged systems. They said these barriers are intended to reduce the risk that the ML1 will need extensive refurbishment following Artemis II.”
“In addition to refurbishment, EGS is certifying the ML1 crew access arm, which crew will use to board the Orion spacecraft. According to officials, the arm was modified after Artemis I to be able to extend quickly in an emergency should crew need to evacuate. Officials said that as of September 2024, the arm is going through testing and certification and is the primary schedule driver for the ML1’s roll to the VAB and for the Artemis II mission overall. The arm’s testing takes place at the launch pad and must be complete before the ML1 can roll back to the VAB for the next stage of testing. The crew access arm is at risk of delay due to challenges experienced during testing” they said.
Focusing back on schedule concerns, in one telling statement they said, “While EGS elements are close to completion, the program has no schedule margin for these remaining activities. In January 2024, NASA delayed Artemis II by 9 months, but officials said that the delay only provided the EGS program about 3 months of margin to the September 2025 launch readiness date.”
“As of June 2024, officials said all this margin has been applied to technical issues already experienced at the Pad during ML1 and Pad testing. Earlier in 2024, the program was reserving that time for technical issues that may arise during testing of the integrated SLS and Orion vehicle or if weather interferes with planned activities, among other things. Officials said it is likely that issues will arise because this is the first time testing many of these systems. Given the lack of margin, if further issues arise during testing or integration, there will likely be delays to the September 2025 Artemis II launch date” they said.
In other words, the September 2025 launch date is almost guaranteed to be pushed back at least a few months based on these statements. At this point, they are out of margin and there are still another 11 or so months left of work.
To add to that, NASA plans for 1 year between the Artemis II and III launches, which officials said is a very tight turnaround. As a result, they mentioned that “EGS will have only limited time to react to and implement information gained from the Artemis II mission and address challenges, which could lead to schedule delays for future missions. Further, officials said if the Artemis II launch is delayed, it would threaten the Artemis III schedule. EGS officials stated that they are looking at requirements to determine if any can be eliminated to create schedule margin.”
For example, they said that since “Artemis II and III will use the same hardware, there may be opportunities to reduce some testing. At the same time, however, officials noted there could be some additional hardware development activities, depending on lessons learned from Artemis II and how SLS and Orion requirements evolve” they said. Basically, delays to Artemis II could easily have a domino effect on the rest of the program.
Artemis Progress
While there are concerns regarding delays and a small amount of margin, work is being done to prepare for the upcoming missions. Artemis II will be the first crewed test flight of SLS and Orion. To support the Artemis II launch, EGS needed to make certain modifications to the Kennedy Space Center, such as adding an emergency egress system.
The egress system’s baskets have been built, the cabling that carries the baskets to a landing area has been installed, and testing is underway at the Pad. As of September 2024, officials said EGS had completed certification testing of the system, indicating the system is safe to transport humans.
EGS is currently working to finish developing and modifying elements supporting Artemis II so it can be ready to begin integration with SLS and Orion. As of June 2024, EGS planned to be ready for integration by September 2024. After EGS certifies its new or modified elements, the program is responsible for stacking the SLS launch vehicle components and Orion and conducting the testing and check out of the integrated SLS and Orion flight vehicle to ensure they are prepared for launch in September 2025.
In total, EGS has completed a large amount of work to get to this point. As of June 2024, the remaining pre-integration work included completing software system upgrades and work on the egress system, ML1 and crew access arm, and environmental control systems.
Here they are quoted saying, “EGS software controls communication across Kennedy Space Center, as well as the functionality of hardware elements like the environmental control systems at the Pad and in the VAB. Officials explained that as EGS develops and modifies hardware, it needs to also develop, modify, and sustain the corresponding software. They said that software changes being made specifically to support an individual mission must be complete by 1 month prior to beginning operations—such as integrated testing and checkout—in the mission’s launch flow.”
“EGS is monitoring a risk that some software will not be ready for Orion offline processing due to the interdependencies with the Orion program. Officials told us that delayed Orion data pushes out the time frame for when EGS can complete the software development. Officials also stated that the programs are working closely together to prioritize software needs to minimize potential impacts” they said.
The program is also modifying its two environmental control systems by (1) upgrading the Pad’s system, and (2) replacing the VAB’s system. As of June 2024, the Pad system had been built and tested and is no longer a constraint to the ML1 moving to the VAB. As of June 2024, the VAB’s system had started its initial phase of testing. This portion of testing will verify the functionality of the VAB’s system. Once verified, the system will be used to support multi-element verification and validation testing with the ML1.
This testing is expected to verify that the ML1 and VAB work together. Officials said the multi-element testing is required before EGS can power up the SLS core stage, which is planned for December 2024.
In the report’s conclusion, they say, “Artemis mission success depends on the successful implementation of the EGS program. The program has made progress modifying facilities for future missions, but a significant amount of work remains, particularly for the ML2 in advance of Artemis IV. The ML2 is a necessary component for the Artemis IV mission. The project has had numerous delays since its inception and continues to track several schedule risks, both with contractor-led construction and NASA-led verification and validation activities.”
As far as NASA’s response to the report they mentioned, “In responding to a draft of our report, NASA partially concurred with our recommendation for the EGS program and ML2 project to perform at least one Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) prior to beginning integrated operation activities to support the Artemis IV launch. NASA recognized our concern with the overall Artemis mission schedule risk and that EGS is an integral piece of that integrated schedule, but does not plan to conduct an SRA” they said.
Conclusion
NASA still has Artemis II scheduled for September 2025 however a new report highlights the risks to that schedule. By now the agency has run out of margin and any new delays between now and that launch date will force them to push it back. This will have a similar effect on the following Artemis missions including III and IV.