Given what we’re seeing it now seems very likely that Flight 5 will occur on October 13th in only a few days. Yesterday we began seeing images of the Flight Termination Explosives being installed on the booster and ship.
Looking back at practically all the previous Starship flights this is a milestone that usually occurs only a few days before the launch takes place. Combine this with a new flight restriction on the 13th for aircraft and just about every pre launch check has been met.
FTS Installation
A few days ago on the 7th SpaceX tweeted that they are preparing to launch Starship on October 13th. This was initially somewhat of a surprise given previous comments from the FAA and an estimate of late November. However, in only the last couple of days there have been multiple developments that suggest a launch in a few days is very likely.
Yesterday on the 9th for example, reports along with images came out of the Flight Termination System (FTS) being installed on the ship and booster. Being that this system is actually just explosives used to terminate the vehicle, you don’t install them early and leave personnel working near them for days on end.
The reason why these explosives are added is to protect range and flight personnel along with surrounding area populations. Essentially, if a missile or space launch vehicle flies on a range in the United States, it must have a flight or thrust termination system (FTS). In the case that things go wrong during flight and the vehicle loses control, for example, the termination system will be activated exploding the launch vehicle in the air. We’ve seen it used a few times on the initial Starship launch attempts.
Regarding the date, looking at some of the past launches, we can see a pattern of installation and then launch. For example, on April 14th, 2023, the FTS was installed, and less than a week later on the 20th, we watched the first full Starship flight attempt. Also, on the second flight, the FTS was installed on November 11th with a launch attempt on the 18th. With this in mind, once we see SpaceX installing this system, we know that a launch is likely a week or less away.
The FTS installation is also a serious enough milestone that it usually involves the FAA in a way. An official FAA statement is quoted saying, “Pre-flight ground operations” shall mean SpaceX’s pre-flight preparations of the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle at Boca Chica, Texas, beginning at the start of Autonomous Flight Termination System ordnance installation for the Starship upper stage vehicle or Super Heavy booster vehicle, whichever occurs first.” In other words, yesterday’s developments would mean that SpaceX should be approved for flight or at least heard something and will likely announce sometime soon.
Besides the Flight Termination System, yesterday a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) was released for October 13th. This outlines the area to avoid on launch day and is another sign that the launch is set to take place. If that wasn’t enough there are also road closures on the 13th.
In that document, they are quoted saying, “I have ordered the closure of Boca Chica Beach and Hwy 4 for the purpose of protecting Public Health and Safety during SpaceX flight testing activities on October 13, 2024, in the time period between 12:00 a.m. CST to 2:00 p.m. CST.”
At this point, SpaceX has practically checked off every single pre-launch activity needed for a launch with the exception of the actual launch licesnce. That being said, these are usually one of the final pieces to come in and happen only a couple of days before the launch attempt. That means if the launch license is coming, it should be within the next two days or so.
Flight 5 Upgrades
With Flight 5 supposedly right around the corner, SpaceX is finishing up a long list of upgrades and changes. As we know by now, this launch will attempt the catch the booster. SpaceX clarified that the default mission flight profile sends the booster to the Gulf of Mexico for a soft splashdown. However, the flight director has manual control and will determine if it should instead return to the launch site for a catch sometime before the boostback burn occurs. This will depend on a bunch of different criteria and variables.
Interestingly, we just got some new information on the booster landing that happened on Flight 4. Specifically, the SpaceX Vice President was quoted saying, “We landed with half a centimeter (0.2 in) accuracy in the ocean, so we think we have a reasonable chance to go back to the tower.” This is quite the statement and highlights how accurate the landing on Flight 4 was.
When the footage was released it was clear that the booster was mainly on target based on the camera position along with statements from SpaceX, but an accuracy of half a centimeter is extreme. This likely is what gave the company the confidence to go through with a catch attempt on this upcoming flight. The margin of error will be low and the booster will need a landing burn with similar accuracy to the last launch.
In a statement from SpaceX, they said, “Thousands of distinct vehicle and pad criteria must be met prior to a return and catch attempt of the Super Heavy booster, which will require healthy systems on the booster and tower and a manual command from the mission’s Flight Director. If this command is not sent prior to the completion of the boostback burn, or if automated health checks show unacceptable conditions with Super Heavy or the tower, the booster will default to a trajectory that takes it to a landing burn and soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico” they said. Something we will hopefully see this Sunday.
Besides the booster catch, SpaceX has been working on a quite a few upgrades to both the booster and the ship. Flight 4 was impressive but definitely had some room for improvement. During Ship reentry, we watched as the heat and plasma ate away at the forward flap continually stripping away heat shielding and metal. By the end, a good chunk had been destroyed yet the flap still managed to work and help flip the ship prior to splashdown. Since that flight, the heat shield has been a main focus.
In a recent statement, the company said, “One of the key upgrades on Starship ahead of flight was a complete rework of its heatshield, with SpaceX technicians spending more than 12,000 hours replacing the entire thermal protection system with newer-generation tiles, a backup ablative layer, and additional protections between the flap structures.”
We actually saw of lot of this work begin soon after Flight 4. After that attempt, Musk was quoted saying, “It’s pretty incredible that the rocket made it all the way to the ocean despite the front right flap getting cooked very hard. But for the next flight, we want to not have the tiles fly off and have a skeleton flap. So the new tiles like I said about twice as strong or hopefully half as likely to crack or come off.” He continued by saying, “We ran two experiments with tiles on this flight which people may have noticed cause there were missing tiles, they were intentionally missing because we were testing the secondary heat shield material which is like a silicone felt ablative” he said.
SpaceX went on to add this ablative material in addition to the tiles to create a heat shield that they are confident will survive reentry in much better shape than Flight 4.
Musk went on to clarify in another quote, “It’s not good for reuse but it’s good for saving your butt if a tile cracks or falls off. It’s very tricky to put these tiles and have them work well because the tiles are ceramics, they are like a coffee cup or a dinner plate. So you have a whole bunch of dinner plates on a rocket that is shaking. It’s shrinking cryogenically with the propellant and then expanding under pressure and then the tiles are expanding when they get hot. So there’s a lot of expansion and contraction happening while trying to keep all these brittle tiles from cracking or breaking off” he said. Despite these challenges, SpaceX believes they have found a solution that this next flight will put to the test.
In a more recent statement, the company said, “Extensive upgrades ahead of this flight test have been made to hardware and software across Super Heavy, Starship, and the launch and catch tower infrastructure at Starbase. SpaceX engineers have spent years preparing and months testing for the booster catch attempt, with technicians pouring tens of thousands of hours into building the infrastructure to maximize our chances for success. We accept no compromises when it comes to ensuring the safety of the public and our team, and the return will only be attempted if conditions are right” they said. When Starship does eventually launch, we won’t know whether the catch is happening until likely just a few minutes before. Something to look forward to in the coming days.
Conclusion
Yesterday the Flight Termination System was installed on Starship in addition to the release of a Temporary Flight Restriction. These are all good signs that SpaceX will actually be attempting a launch this Sunday the 13th. Over the next few days, we can expect some final prep and possibly an official launch license which would confirm Flight 5.