For a while now Blue Origin has been keeping to themselves for the most part while they construct and test New Glenn, a next-generation heavy-lift launch vehicle meant to become the company’s workhorse and future. With a reusable booster and significant payload capabilities, it’s hoping to become a large competitor within the industry, offering low prices and reliability.
However, that’s a lot easier said than done, and considering this will be the company’s first truly orbital-capable rocket, it will need to prove itself starting with a maiden flight. Based on comments from Blue Origin, this first launch attempt could happen as soon as around 5 months from now. Here I will go more in-depth into New Glenn’s progress, progress on the booster’s landing ship, the launch date, and more.
New Developments
In just the last few weeks we’ve received a few important updates on New Glenn and its necessary infrastructure related to the maiden flight. Just over a week ago for example, the company tweeted saying, “We’re rolling out our New Glenn simulator again today for a series of transport erector integrated ground tests in preparation for launch later this year. Tests will include powering up the pumps that provide pressure to the vehicle hydraulic system, validating the ground system supplying commodities to the rocket, and a rapid retract test of the umbilical connections. More to come.”
This tweet alone provides a few important details. For one, the work specifically with launch site infrastructure is a good sign and suggests the company is getting closer. For these specific tests, Blue Origin used the New Glenn simulator which is practically an empty shell of the first stage. This likely has to do with the fact that for these pad tests, the more complete and nearly flight-capable New Glenn which we saw earlier this year is simply not needed. The other important detail was the confirmation of the launch later this year. For a while now Blue Origin has been targeting late this year but this tweet is the most recent example. With it already being June, the company believes that in about 5 months they will have a flight-ready New Glenn on the pad.
While ambitious sounding, Blue Origin has shown over time that it can be further ahead than thought due to the fact that they keep a lot of big milestones to themselves. That being said, they did showcase some tanking tests on the pad earlier this year. As far as what to expect, with a launch date so soon, final testing including a wet dress rehearsal and static fire would have to be right around the corner. Assuming things go well and they stay on schedule, we could see these tests as soon as a few months from now.
Beyond vehicle progress and launch site testing, we also got new information on the landing vessel which the booster will use when landing downrange. A few days ago the first images were captured of New Glenn’s first landing platform uniquely named Landing Platform Vessel 1. In the past reports came out that Blue Origin was working on a barge similar to SpaceX for future landing operations. Now we can actually see some of the similarities and differences.
Initial estimates put the platform size at around 150ft by 380ft or 46m by 115m. For reference, SpaceX’s barges such as Just Read The Instructions is 170ft by 300ft or 52m by 91m. That would put the two at a similar size with Blue Origin’s version being even longer. The most obvious difference when looking at the image is the large structures on either end of the platform. Besides what looks like a helipad on one side, it’s unclear exactly what Blue Origin will use these structures for relative to the landing process. Other than there being enough space for a massive New Glenn booster to touch down safely, they will likely have their own unique way to secure the booster at sea and prevent it from falling over or getting damaged.
Looking at New Glenn, this booster is around 60 meters tall and almost double the diameter of the Falcon 9 with a 7-meter width. As for its legs, the aft module houses six hydraulically actuated legs that support and secure the first stage during landing. Compared to Falcon 9’s booster these legs are a lot closer to the stage and don’t go out nearly as far. With all things considered both boosters have a very similar footprint despite the size difference. It’s also worth noting that landing a booster on a platform at sea is immensely difficult. In SpaceX’s initial attempts, they missed plenty of landings and also had quite a few explosive attempts. In Blue Origin’s case, they have some experience landing New Shepard’s booster which is valuable but doesn’t change the fact that New Glenn’s booster is significantly larger, more powerful, and landing at sea. If they end up with some rough initial tries which is not out of the question, this platform and some of the structures on it in particular could easily get damaged.
The Maiden Flight
New Glenn’s first flight will carry multiple payloads on a mission to Mars. To add to that, ideally, Blue Origin wants the first flight of New Glenn to work from the moment the rocket reaches the pad to when its reusable booster lands back on a barge not long after liftoff. They stress that the inaugural flight will have customer devices on board; it won’t be an experiment. In other words, it seems that not only is Blue Origin planning to try and reach Mars, but also land the booster on the maiden flight.
We do know that the mission overall is quite risky in the sense that there are a lot of unknowns. Even NASA, which selected the company and launch vehicle for the Mars mission knows this. Originally, NASA awarded Blue Origin a task order to provide launch service for the agency’s Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission, as part of the agency’s Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) launch services contract. In the statement, the agency is quoted saying, “ESCAPADE will launch on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket from Space Launch Complex-36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Launch is targeted for late 2024.“
By now the payloads, which consist of two spacecraft, are nearly ready to be integrated. Early last month Rocket Lab, which is helping build these spacecraft tweeted saying, “Blue, the spacecraft on the left, has completed a successful thermal vacuum test campaign. Meanwhile, Gold, the spacecraft on the right, has completed pre-environments testing and is now into vibration testing. Not long to go until these beautiful machines are shipped out to the Cape ready for their journey to Mars for UCBSSL and NASA’s ESCAPADE mission to unravel the mysteries of Mars’ unique magnetosphere.
More relevant when talking about risk, the agency classified this mission as Class D. Looking at a chart provided by the agency, they list four different classifications going from least risky, A, to most risky, D. For Class D missions its quoted saying, “Medium or significant risk of not achieving mission success is permitted. Minimal assurance standards are permitted.”
Late last year, Bradley Smith, director of NASA’s Launch Services Program, said the agency’s Mars-bound ESCAPADE smallsats will fly on an “incredibly ambitious first launch for (Blue Origin’s) New Glenn” rocket “around this time next year.” He continued by saying, “We will very likely be the very first launch of New Glenn.” To build on this, when talking about the mission risk, Smith said, this is acceptable, since ESCAPADE is what NASA characterizes as a “class D” mission with a higher tolerance for risk. “We’re willing to take a little bit of risk with a price tag and a mission assurance model that reflects that risk” he said. With all this in mind, everyone involved knows that a handful of things could go wrong.
You also have to factor the deadline into the equation. Mars missions only happen every few years due to the orbit relative to Earth. There is a somewhat small window where launches are the most efficient in terms of time to reach the red planet. If New Glenn is not ready in time, they could miss that window and not simply launch a few months late. That being said, there should be an opportunity within a few months in the fourth quarter of this year giving the rocket a bit of room.
In another quote, he said, “There’s certainly some schedule risk associated with New Glenn getting to the pad,” noting he has seen Blue Origin’s schedule for the vehicle but did not disclose details about it. In terms of a specific date, November or December have been mentioned for ESCAPADE.
Over the next few months, the company’s progress and success will determine if they manage to get this launch off by late this year or not. At the end of the day, New Glenn is a massive new rocket with lofty goals. For the booster, all the engines combined will produce around (3,850,000 lbf) total thrust at sea level. The restartable BE-4 engines are hoping to provide precision thrust vector control and continuous deep throttle capability to support propulsive deceleration and landing maneuvers, while featuring long design life. The 8.5 m (28 ft) diameter engine skirt protects the engines from atmospheric reentry conditions and contains six stowed landing gear. The mid module of the booster houses the fuel (LNG) and oxidizer (LOX) tanks. Together, this rocket is hoping to change how we access space and start launching very frequently in the near future.
Conclusion
Blue Origin could only be around 5 months away from New Glenn’s first launch. Things seem to be coming together with more pad testing along with landing platforms being spotted. We will have to wait and see how it progresses and the impact it has on the space industry.